The Kavanaugh effect on the midterm elections
New poll shows Democrats' generic ballot lead cut in half in a month. Is this natural momentum before the elections or evidence of a bigger movement?
How will the bitter fight over the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court affect the Nov. 6 midterm elections that will determine political party control of the U.S. House and Senate?
While many Republicans are arguing that their party will benefit by the confirmation battle, they may be overly optimistic.
There’s a good chance Democrats will pick up the support of a substantial number of women voters who are upset by the way sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh have been rejected by Republicans in Congress and President Trump. If that happens, Democratic chances of capturing a majority of seats in the House would increase, though winning control of the Senate still remains just their unlikely longshot hope.
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The most recent Rasmussen Poll found that 77 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of voters not affiliated with either major party agree with the Kavanaugh’s assertion that his confirmation process has become “a national disgrace.” That would seem, at first glance, to be a plus for Republicans.
Kavanaugh has been accused of sexual misconduct by three women. However, the allegations have not been corroborated by other people or by evidence. And a short and very limited supplemental FBI background investigation of Kavanaugh turned up nothing to support the allegations, Republican senators say.
The Supreme Court nominee has firmly denied all the allegations against him and said he has never sexually assaulted anyone.
Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee subjected Kavanaugh to tough accusatory questioning about his high school and college years – including his drinking, relationships with girls and women, and other issues involving his personal conduct.
Will more voters now see Kavanaugh as an innocent man unfairly attacked by Democrats – and so turn out to cast ballots for Republicans? Or will more voters be angered that Republicans dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh and so turn out to vote for Democrats in the midterms?
Polling – like the Rasmussen Poll – that is conducted before a process is complete is necessarily tentative. The evidence that I have seen is at most suggestive – and not yet in any way compelling – that Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than polling has shown for the better part of the year.
The Republican enthusiasm, which seems clear today, in my judgment is unlikely to be maintained for the next 30 or so days until Election Day.
Of course, it is possible that a month from now, with the passage of time, Republican voters could remain as energized as they may well be now – but that is just a Republican hope, not a certainty.
Moreover, given that the most recent data from The Economist/UGOV shows a 12-point margin of women favoring Democratic candidates, there is every reason to believe that this gender gap will expand further.
Many independent, Democratic and moderate suburban Republican women will surely remain outraged at the failure of the FBI to do a more complete probe of the sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh. Women who have been on the receiving end of sexual misconduct at some point in their lives have a particular interest in seeing complaints alleging such misconduct treated seriously.
I write this not as an ideologue or a partisan, as my own feelings on Kavanaugh are somewhat mixed and complicated. But as someone who has been closely involved in studying and working in political campaigns for decades, I believe the gender gap in politics is likely to increase between now and Nov. 6 – and that’s bad news for the GOP.
The gender gap will be a particularly important factor in swing congressional districts, which are mostly suburban and mostly moderate. In these crucial districts that will determine which party controls the House, I would be surprised if the enthusiasm for Republicans remains a month from now.
It does look increasingly clear that the Republicans are likely to hold the Senate. As of now, it does not appear there will be a blue wave benefiting the Democrats in Senate races, and it is likely that the Republicans will gain a seat, or perhaps two. Even if the Democrats have a relatively good day on Election Day, for them to win the Senate remains a huge challenge.
The House is a different story, with a Democratic takeover looking increasingly likely. More and more evidence indicates that many swing districts are likely to go Democratic. The estimates of how many seats the Democrats stand to gain in the House range from the low 30s to higher, with the number of Democratic pick-ups likely to be enough for the party to win the lower chamber.
Moreover, according to most recent RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats are at their highest level in the generic vote (48.4 percent) since the Republicans passed their unfunded tax cuts through budget reconciliation in December.
It will be particularly interesting to look at the so-called enthusiasm gap, the generic vote and the likely turnout numbers in a week to 10 days from now, once the dust for the Kavanaugh confirmation battle has settled and voters have moved on to consider the issues of the campaign. These issues are largely the economy, health care, immigration and climate change.
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At this point, I do not see the likelihood of a strong red wave appearing. I think Republican elites are a lot more excited than the GOP base about the midterm elections.
If large numbers of women – particularly in swing suburban House districts – conclude that the Republican Party is more concerned about protecting men accused of sexual misconduct than in protecting women, we should look for a major power shift that will return Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to power as speaker of the House with a Democratic majority.
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