Donald Trump indictment changes 2024 race, but not the way you think
The full force of the law came after Trump and resuscitated his campaign
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has been invigorated by the indictment by New York’s Manhattan DA on flimsy charges of falsifying business records seven years ago. The former president has growing momentum, added fund-raising and better poll numbers in the Republican primary.
Maybe this is exactly what Democrats want. After all, President Joe Biden seems dead set on running for re-election even though no president with a job rating as low as Biden’s has ever gotten re-elected. His best chance, many strategists believe, is to run a re-match against Trump. But our recent polling shows that Biden loses to Trump in a rematch given the state of the economy, immigration, and crime.
Last December, Trump had a 2024 campaign announcement that lacked energy, was barely noticed, and he was giving rallies that few news outlets were even covering. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was every month gaining new voters in the Republican primary while Trump was stalled. Then the full force of the law started coming after Trump and resuscitated his campaign and his political life.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The indictment is splitting Americans along party lines. Eighty percent of Democrats supported an indictment, 79 percent of Republicans opposed it, and Independents were split 51-49 against according to the March Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. Most Americans, however, also believe that the indictment is politically motivated and the Trump will eventually be acquitted.
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A review of the actual indictment raises even more questions about how it could possibly be issued. It claims that payments made in 2017 affected the 2016 election and fails to specify any crime that was committed to trigger making it a felony and extending the statute of limitations. Even in NY, this indictment is, in my view, likely to be tossed, further energizing the Trump campaign.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Americans are split along party lines over how the indictment will affect Trump’s presidential chances. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats think it will hurt his candidacy and 57 percent of Republicans say it will help, according to the March Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. The actual effect may depend on how skillfully Trump responds. His speech to his supporters was calmly delivered but was also more of a laundry list of personal grievances than a stirring call to electoral action. A majority of Americans in each party disapproved of his calls for protests in the run-up to the indictment, and he could lose more moderates if he veers anywhere near January 6-style behavior.
The indictment presents difficult problems for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the clear front-running challenger to Trump. Recently DeSantis has doubled down on cultural conservatism to go after the Trump base but with little success. He would be better off focusing on character and competence rather than the culture wars to bolster his campaign. He won an overwhelming re-election in Florida because he handled COVID and a recent hurricane well, not because he took on Disney. He needs to reset his campaign and differentiate from Trump, not try to mimic him.
Trump will still be a formidable primary frontrunner regardless. Half of Republican voters would pick Trump in an open GOP primary and 56 percent would pick him in a head-to-head primary against DeSantis. But DeSantis has the favorability and growing image to mount a real challenge. DeSantis leads all figures in the Harris Poll with 47 percent favorability and has the largest favorable/unfavorable gap of +14 points. Trump has a similar favorability at 46 percent, but his favorable-unfavorable gap is 1 point underwater with 47% against him. Compared to 94 percent of voters who are familiar with Trump and Biden, only 81% have even heard of the Florida governor, giving him some potential for growth. Tim Scott is also well liked among those who know him, but has a long way to go to establish a national identity.
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Former US President Donald Trump departs after delivering remarks at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, US, on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. Trump entered a not-guilty plea to 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree in a proceeding that took a little less than an hour. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
But despite the surge by Trump today, the Republican primary is far from over. DeSantis has a high 76% favorable with Republicans and is polling better in early primary states; an early win in a place like New Hampshire would flip the whole dynamic of the race.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Over on the Democrat side it seems as if the Democrat establishment is coalescing around Biden rather than go through a bruising primary. The close midterm contest has provided a rationale for continuing to back Biden, and the party has, unlike the Republicans, shown a strong measure of cohesion. The more they bank on Biden, the more they are counting on a Trump rematch they mistakenly believe they can win. By kicking his announcement to late summer, Biden has frozen the field in his favor and staved off lame-duck status.
The Trump bump is real, and the country is edging closer to a Trump/Biden rematch in 2024. Both these candidates have such baggage with swing voters however, that the party bases may be missing how much better either party would do if they nominated a fresh face with the experience to serve as president.