Arnon Mishkin: Coronavirus reopening — President Trump, here's what to ignore when making this decision
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With some signs that the “curve is flattening,” and growing concern about the impact of the epidemic on the economy, there is increasing pressure on President Trump and many governors to relax “stay-at-home” orders, enabling more businesses to reopen and people to return to their jobs. President Trump describes himself as a wartime president, and I’d argue, that, like other wartime presidents, he should focus on the battlefield and not the politics.
Some of the pressure is coming from public health experts who believe that the current approach is inefficient and should be more targeted at the most vulnerable (elderly) populations. But, also, there’s significant pressure coming from conservatives who think that the president should pay more attention to the economic impact of decisions to keep people at home.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}A reading of recent polls suggests that the president has significant leeway in delaying putting up an “open for business” sign. Indeed, 57 percent of American registered voters believe the country is on the “right direction” in fighting the pandemic. Significant numbers support the financial assistance the government is providing businesses and families and the significant steps, e.g. closing down nonessential businesses, governments have put in place.
Still, pressure continues to build on the president to relax measures and to enable businesses to re-open, sooner rather than later.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In particular, Republicans may be concerned by a political science historical reality: the most important factor for an incumbent president is the economic growth in the second quarter. From April through June of an election, voters decide whether the economy is good enough to justify an incumbent’s reelection.
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Republicans hope for signs of a clear economic upswing before voters bake in a negative judgment on the president’s handling of the economy. Consistent with that, the president is seeking to set up an “Opening Our Country Council” in the next few days.
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President Trump argued that his decision on when to reopen the country will be “the most important decision of his life.” This is not an exaggeration.
And, it’s a decision for which polls today can offer little if any, guidance.
Whatever decision he makes in the coming days will not be judged until September or October, at the earliest. Because of the COVID-19 crisis, people know why the economy is tanking — and it’s neither party’s fault. Rather they want to see what happens during and after this crisis — and only then will voters make their decisions.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Just like other wartime presidents, he’s not going to be judged by the initial popularity of the war, but by its effectiveness.
U.S. President George W. Bush and first lady Laura Bush participate in the ceremony to commemorate foreign policy achievements at the State Department in Washington January 15, 2009.
In 2003, when President George W. Bush invaded Iraq, the war was very popular, and Americans welcomed his announcement of “Mission Accomplished.” By October 2004, the war was vastly more challenging. Bush likely would have lost that year, had Osama Bin Laden not released a video on the Friday before election day, reminding people of the stakes behind the “War on Terror.”
It’s not only Iraq. It’s true for almost every war. It’s not the polls. It’s not the soundbites. It’s the policy.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}(Lyndon B. Johnson Library and Museum)
During Vietnam, Lyndon Johnson was considered a favorite until the North Vietnamese appeared to score considerable victories during the Tet Offensive in 1968. Soon after, Johnson was humiliated in the New Hampshire primary and chose not to run for reelection.
Similarly, in the initial stages of World War II, American successes were limited. In the 1942 off-year election, Democrats lost 47 seats in the House of Representatives and nine in the Senate, and Republican hopes for the White House in 1944 were high. But by the time of the election, D-day had occurred, as well as significant victories in the Pacific — and Roosevelt sailed to victory.
Even earlier, in the Civil War, continued Southern victories and the Northern body count through the summer of 1864 made most people (no polls available then) consider Abraham Lincoln a likely loser. It was not until September, with Sherman’s victory in Atlanta, that the tide turned.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The lesson for Trump: Beware of polls or pundits telling you in which direction to go: If you choose to reopen the country, and there’s a huge second wave of infection in September, the same folks will blame you — for following their advice. And if you choose to keep the country shut, and other economies start to boom, the same will occur.
You make the decision: if it works, you win. If it doesn’t, well, yes, you lose.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}The judgment that counts — is the judgment voters make in November. They’ll look back and decide whether the president took the right decisions in the face of an unseen enemy. They’re willing to pay the price for now, so long as they see signs of victory at the end.
As always, hindsight is 20-20, and in 2020 that hindsight will define the election.