Biden says no Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine
'Special Report' All-Star panel reacts to the president's meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Don’t write off Kyiv, but if Vladimir Putin attacks "any day" under cover of wargames in Belarus starting this week, President Biden will have an instant decision to make.
Ukraine does not want U.S. or NATO ground forces. They’ve already lost 14,000 in the eastern region conflict with Russia and want to fight Russia themselves.
However, Ukraine will need help, fast. U.S. commanders would receive word of a Russian attack in less than five minutes.
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NATO’s ready. Is Biden?
Biden’s chaotic response to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan still casts doubt on his skills as commander in chief, and the Obama-era legacy of letting Russia off lightly doesn’t help. There’s no question in my mind that Putin was emboldened by Biden’s Kabul failure to try a max-pressure strategy on Ukraine.
Still, I liked it when Biden on Sunday snapped that "Putin wants things he can’t get." And his threat on Monday to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline backed up the "economic deterrence" his team prefers.
Here are some of Biden’s choices.
Provide location information on Russian forces. In modern war, soldiers fuse precision position data on the enemy and hand it off to forces authorized to shoot back. Ukraine can use anti-tank and other weapons when it has cuing or targeting data, and NATO can help.
Biden needs to be ready to react with military forces, because Putin is out on a limb.
Brace for a cyber-attack, on the battlefield or across Ukraine. Ukraine may need more help if Putin tries to pull down the Zelenskyy government with disinformation, denial-of-service or cyber heists. NATO’s already helping Ukraine with cyber early-warning.
Set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine and use NATO airpower’s electronic warfare. A no-fly zone should keep Russian combat jets and bombers out of Ukraine’s airspace, so they can’t provide cover to invading forces. NATO planes can also use electronic warfare to garble Russia’s tactical command and control, breaking links with Russian target-spotting drones, for example. It’s especially important if Russia fires heavy artillery over the border to shell Ukrainian forces, like in 2014.
Neutralize Russian air defenses. Russia already had vicious mobile air defenses in Crimea and moved others to Belarus for exercises. But, as Putin knows, NATO aircraft can employ high-speed anti-radiation missiles and other tactics to make Russia very reluctant to switch air defense radars on. Don’t forget U.S., British and French aircraft blew right past Russian air defenses in Syria when striking chemical weapons targets in 2018.
Authorize Ukraine’s forces to call in U.S. and/or NATO airstrikes on Russian tanks, artillery and other military assets. The U.S., Canada and others have trained selected Ukraine forces as air controllers who can call in airstrikes following strict rules of engagement. It’s a quick step to make a torrent of NATO strike aircraft available. Russia likes to encircle cities then lob in artillery or airstrikes, as they did in Syria. That won’t work if Russia does not control the air.
Prepare for refugees. The worst-case scenarios could drive refugees into NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania that border Ukraine. Caring for them would strain airlift and political attention.
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Biden needs to be ready to react with military forces, because Putin is out on a limb. According to their own doctrine, Russia doesn’t exactly want to invade, they’d prefer to scare Ukraine and NATO enough to get Biden to cave on several demands.
One NATO analysis from 2019 found "Russia uses big wargames and deployments to borders to intimidate. ... By demonstrating the ability to mass combat forces quickly along a border, these drills aim to instill fear and doubt among target populations and their governments." And if that doesn’t work?
Russia is well-placed for a quick strike, but knowing that the U.S. and NATO could send rapid help to support Ukraine’s ground forces might make Putin think twice.
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Russia is using the build-up to coerce Ukraine and the West. Biden must make Putin realize the U.S. and NATO are vigilant and ready to push back – that’s the clearest way to deter.
Biden lived through the Cold War and Soviet brinksmanship. It’s time for him to shed the smiling, gabby senator persona and channel President John F. Kennedy in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis; Biden was 19 then. I’m sure he remembers that it took cold courage, a naval blockade and massive U.S. airpower near Cuba to bring that crisis to an end.
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