The choice Biden—and the world—faces in Ukraine
If we fail, Ukraine’s fate is sealed
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}President Joe Biden loves to say that "America is back," bragging that with him in charge we can resume our rightful place as leader of the free world.
But it’s time he started acting like it, instead of just giving speeches about it. Don’t just talk about the courageous Ukrainian people. Give them with the weapons necessary to defend themselves, and do it quickly.
UKRAINE RELEASES VIDEO OF RUSSIA DRONE DISMANTLING
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}President Joe Biden announces the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower gasoline prices on March 31, 2022, from the White House. (Reuters/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo)
Don’t just rant about how evil Russian President Vladimir Putin is, and mutter about regime change. Take steps to cut off Putin's energy revenues. Russia takes in more than a billion dollars every day from natural gas and oil exports. European nations are projected to pay Russia nearly half a trillion dollars in 2022 to buy Russian energy. They are literally funding Putin’s war machine. If Biden paused his war on fossil fuels to allow American natural gas production and exports to Europe, Putin’s revenues would plummet.
If reports that Russia is using chemical weapons are confirmed, it is a game changer. It means Putin will not stop fighting because of international pressure, nor will he hesitate to use weapons of mass destruction, nor is he troubled by committing war crimes against civilian populations.
There are only two ways to stop Putin: militarily by defeating him on the battlefield; and economically by reducing his income to the point where he can’t afford to keep fighting.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}If we fail to supply weapons to Ukraine, and refuse cut off Putin’s revenues, Ukraine’s fate is sealed. Russia will bleed it to death.
But that won’t be the end of it. The Ukraine war has ramifications far beyond Ukraine’s borders. A Russian "victory" could deal a fatal blow to the entire concept of democracy and the liberal world order. We would slide back into a world where might makes right and bullies prevail.
The West is caught in a dilemma. Everyone wants Ukraine to prevail, but at no significant cost or risk to themselves. Understandably no NATO member, including the U.S., wants their own forces to join the fight, and risk setting off another world war. President Biden worries supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself could trigger a Russian attack on NATO, or even Russian escalation to weapons of mass destruction.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}If Russia’s nuclear blackmail succeeds, all wanna-be nuclear powers will figure that once they cross the threshold, they can get away with anything. No country is willing to mess with a nuclear weapons state.
At the same time, European nations dependent on Russian energy for everything from heating oil to electricity generation balk at imposing oil and natural gas sanctions. While such sanctions might reduce Russian revenues, European leaders fear a sudden cutoff of Russian energy would wreck devastation on their own economies.
So the war grinds on.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In this latest phase of the war, Russian forces have withdrawn from Kyiv and western Ukraine, leaving death and destruction in their wake. They’re now concentrating on eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin has put a new general in charge of the war, a man whose warfighting specialty is not conquering countries, but destroying civilizations. If Putin’s army can’t defeat Ukraine’s army, he will use it to commit genocide, raze the country to the ground, and force its surrender, just as did fifteen years ago with Chechnya and more recently with Syria.
Putin’s war is also on a deadline. On May 9 people across Russia will celebrate their World War II victory over the Nazis. Since Putin has cast the entire Ukraine operation as a noble effort to rid Ukraine of its Nazi leaders, he’s painted himself into a corner. He needs to show progress in defeating Ukraine’s "Nazis" on the anniversary of defeating Germany’s Nazis. (Never mind that President Zelenskyy is Jewish and grandson of Holocaust survivors.)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks from Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, April 8, 2022. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP)
Some in the Biden administration, perhaps President Biden himself, hold out hope that if things get bad enough in Russia, with sanctions causing increased economic hardship added to mounting war casualties, Putin will be pushed out. Maybe, but it is unlikely to happen in time to save Ukraine. Indeed, Putin’s popularity has actually increased since the invasion.
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In the coming days and weeks President Biden and other western leaders must make a choice. Will they give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself? Even so, Ukraine might not prevail, but at least they would have a fighting chance. Is Biden willing to pause his sacred war on fossil fuels and let American energy companies ramp up production and increase exports? If so, we could help Europe wean itself off Russian energy, while at the same time depriving Russia of windfall profits.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}If President Biden does neither, the harsh reality is Putin is likely to destroy Ukraine. And, in a few years’ time, when the Russian bear is hungry again, he will be back for more.