Our country is skeptical about whether 'America is back,' more uncertain about US global leadership
Americans are unclear about how the United States should respond to global threats—or if it even can
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Soon after taking office, President Biden declared about U.S. global leadership, "America is back." Many Americans, however, are skeptical. While the American people clearly recognize the threats our country faces, they are unsure and equivocal about whether or how the United States should lead in the world.
The results of the latest Reagan National Defense Survey indicate that there is now significant consensus that China is the nation that poses the greatest threat to the United States.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In our fourth annual survey, for the first time, a majority (52 percent) of the American people identified China as the greatest threat we face, with only 14 percent naming Russia.
This is a marked change since our first survey in 2018, when only 21 percent said China while 30 percent said Russia. China tops the list for Republicans (64%) as well as Democrats and Independents (both 44%), making this our first survey to reveal cross-partisan consensus on the question of the greatest threat we face.
Despite this alignment with the bipartisan consensus among national security leaders in Washington, Americans are unclear about how the United States should respond to global threats—or if it even can.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Fewer people support active U.S. leadership, and more people believe that U.S. global engagement should depend on the circumstance. Less than half of Americans (42%) think it is better for the United States to be more engaged and take the lead when it comes to international events, which is down nearly 10 points just since February.
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Almost one-third (30%) think that it is better for the United States to be less engaged and react to events. Notably, almost the same number (28%) responded "it depends" or "don’t know," which is an increase of 6 points since February. It seems there isn’t a growing desire for isolationism but rather rising uncertainty about America’s role in the world.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Americans are also losing confidence in the institution primarily responsible for dealing with the threats we face around the world. Our latest survey shows that a minority of Americans—only 45%—report having a great deal of trust and confidence in the military.
Alarmingly, this is down 25 points in the last three years, as more and more Americans say they have little or not much confidence in the military. While institutional trust is down across the board and the military continues to top the list, the trend of declining confidence is occurring more rapidly for the military than it is for other public institutions, including civilian government institutions and law enforcement.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}To understand this trend, a new survey question asked respondents to identify the reason for their level of confidence in the U.S. military. Those with high trust and confidence attribute it to our men and women in uniform. A lack of confidence stems from a general negative sense, though political leadership tops the list.
Americans are also unsure about the military’s ability to perform its core responsibilities. While more than half (57%) have a great deal of confidence in the U.S. military’s ability to keep the country safe, only 42% have high confidence in its ability to win a war overseas.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}In 1976, Ronald Reagan said of U.S. military capabilities, "[W]e are number two in a world where it is dangerous, if not fatal, to be second best." The American people believe we are now in that same dilemma: less than half (43%) believe the U.S. military is the best in the world, while 45% think it is only one of the best.
When President Reagan took office 40 years ago in 1981, the American people were resigned in face of U.S. decline. President Reagan rejected that attitude, asserting that Americans "are not going to accept the notion that we can only make a better world for others by moving backward ourselves."
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}As was the case then, addressing the threats that most concern the American people requires American strength.
Today’s leaders must inspire their fellow citizens to believe again in a United States that leads in the world and maintains the peace through its strength.
Rachel Hoff is Policy Director at the Ronald Reagan Institute.