3 reasons governors' races matter in 2022 midterms

While all eyes are on critical senate races in Pennsylvania and Georgia, possible GOP wins in gubernatorial races may prove equally consequential, and surprising. When deep blue Oregon, which Joe Biden carried by 16 points in 2020, appears likely to elect Christine Drazen, their first Republican governor in nearly 40 years, something is up. 

Republicans taking control of Congress is essential; only a GOP majority can shut down the damaging policies of the Joe Biden White House. But winning governorships is increasingly important, especially as the Supreme Court is clearly sending power back to the states with its consequential ruling on Roe vs Wade and by limiting executive overreach with West Virginia vs. EPA. That stance puts governors in the drivers’ seats on numerous critical issues.

There are 36 governor races underway today. Looking at current trends, it appears the GOP could end this election cycle in charge of as many as 31 or even 32 governorships, up from 28 today. That would leave Democrats holding only 18 or 19.

The message to Democrat leaders from voters could not be plainer: we do not like what you’re offering.

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The battle playing out for governors’ mansions is critical, for three key reasons.

First, in our federalist democracy, policy on local taxes, education, voting methods, climate and much more are set by state legislatures and signed off on by the governor who, like the president, also has veto power. That gives governors enormous authority, sometimes allowing that individual even to counteract what transpires at the federal level.

For instance, Republican Gov. Gregg Abbott of Texas is attempting to plug the holes created (literally) by Joe Biden’s irresponsible open border policy by building some segments of a wall along the southern border and employing Texas’ agencies to apprehend people crossing into his state illegally – a task rightly undertaken by the federal government. 

Democrats do not approve of federalism, and are pushing on numerous fronts to pass nationwide laws that would usurp states’ power over climate policies, labor regulations, rules about voting and, of course, abortion.  

Liberals were horrified that the Supreme Court, in its decision on Roe v. Wade, sent abortion policy back to the states. Democrats’ extreme approach, which guided a bill passed in New York in 2019 allowing abortion any time up until birth, is not mainstream. Stunned by the reversal of Roe, President Biden is pledging to push for a national abortion bill if Democrats maintain control of Congress after next week’s elections. 

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Similarly, President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a major step towards mandating climate policy nation-wide. Up until now, many decisions about fracking, electric vehicles and – most important, oil and gas production -- have been left to the states. 

The bill mandated spending tens of billions of dollars to accelerate the switch to electric vehicles while also imposing substantial fines on methane emissions that stem from the production of oil and natural gas. 

As described by the Congressional Research Service, "The charge starts at $900 per metric ton of methane, increasing to $1,500 after two years. This emissions charge is the first time the federal government has directly imposed a charge, fee, or tax on GHG emissions." 

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Meanwhile, Democrats want to nationalize labor laws through the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, or the PRO Act for short, which was passed by the House in 2021. Currently, there are 27 right-to-work states that allow individuals employed in unionized shops to choose whether or not they want to belong to a union. 

The Democrats’ bill would eliminate that right by requiring all workers in a union business to pay union dues, even if they have declined membership. In numerous ways, the legislation tilts the table in favor of Big Labor, which made passage of the bill a top priority. 

The second reason this cycle’s governors’ races are important is that in some toss-up states, popular incumbents like Brian Kemp in Georgia and Mike DeWine in Ohio have boosted GOP candidates running for the senate. Republicans Hershel Walker and JD Vance look likely to win in those states, helped by the popularity of the governor.

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In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake, who has been slammed by liberals for her ties to Donald Trump, is leading rival Katie Hobbs and has without a doubt helped Blake Masters edge closer to winning the senate seat from incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly.

The third reason the governors’ races are important is that the states make their own voting laws, a reality Democrats would like to change by passing a national voting rights bill. Their initial effort, called HR1, indicating its priority status, set out rules governing how people register to vote, how they vote, and how states conduct elections. It required allowing, for instance, registration online and on Election Day, preregistration of teens getting their drivers licenses, and limited the ability of state officials to purge the voter rolls. 

The voting legislation proposed by Democrats this past year failed, even as they slimmed down their list of demands from earlier versions. Their most recent bills required states to offer a set number of early voting days and universal mail-in ballots, restricted the use of voter IDs, imposed time limits on voting lines and included other measures. Georgia’s entirely sensible voting rights bill passed in 2021, for example, would be obliterated. 

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Republicans deemed likely by Real Clear Politics to pick up governorships include Joe Lombardo in Nevada, who is polling ahead of incumbent Steve Sisolak, Tim Michels in Wisconsin, running against incumbent Tony Evers and Tudor Dixon who faces off in Michigan against sitting Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Republican Lee Zeldin is challenging incumbent Kathy Hochul in New York, a race few were following until recently. As mentioned, Oregon is in play and Pennsylvania could be  also; offsetting those possible wins, GOP candidates in Massachusetts and Maryland appear unlikely to hold their seats.  

These GOP gubernatorial candidates (and others) are running on allowing parents to help determine school policy, restoring safe streets, promoting local businesses and keeping taxes low. Is it any wonder that they are poised to make history?

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