Mark Penn: Abortion could increase Democrat turnout in midterm elections
Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn on how the Supreme Court abortion leak could help Democrats in the midterms and what Trump's influence on the GOP means for the 2024 presidential election.
Just six months out from the 2022 midterm elections, the heat is on for Democrats hoping to buck historic trends while the GOP practically measures the drapes. While 175 days may seem like a short amount of time for Team Blue to reverse some concerning trend lines with a handful of critical issues, it’s also an eternity when it comes to predicting what will drive voters to the polls this fall.
It is no secret that kitchen-table issues including inflation, rising gas prices, and supply chain issues–all caused by global issues stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s War on Ukraine–are foremost on the minds of voters. But this election is likely to be decided not on these issues alone, but also on which candidates emerge from primaries and which voters are actually motivated to show up to vote. It has been said that the only two things in life that are guaranteed are death and taxes. But let’s do some forecasting anyway: here are the four key factors that will decide the 2022 Midterm elections.
AMERICANS SAY ECONOMY, ROE V. WADE DECISION TOP VOTING MOTIVATIONS AS MIDTERMS APPROACH
DENVER, CO - OCTOBER 29 : Election judge Mary Ann Thompson, front, is checking ballots at adjudication section at the Denver Elections Division in Denver, Colorado on Thursday. October 29, 2020. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
Candidates matter.
Many consultants, talking heads, and prognosticators every two years puzzle over how a candidate like Kansas’ Laura Kelly (D-KS) can be elected governor in a state which has only voted Democrat in three presidential elections in the past 100 years–and none in the past 58 years. Or how the nation’s three most popular Governors are the multi-term Republicans leaders of deep blue states Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland.
Conversely, the infamous candidacies of Todd Akin (R-MO), Christine O’Donnell (R-DE), Richard Mourdock (R-IN), and Roy Moore (R-AL), might have fired up the base in the primary but were electoral disasters in the November general. Republicans seem to not have learned their lesson and this trend appears likely to repeat itself this year should Eric Grietens (R-MO), Kathy Barnette (R-PA), Jim Lamon (R-AZ) win their respective senate primaries.
Elections are the politics of addition, not subtraction. The reason you can have a Democratic Governor of Kansas and a Republican Senator from Maine is because good candidates that can appeal to voters beyond their base win tough races. The next few months will decide whether Republicans are more focused on being competitive in safe or toss-up general elections, or if they would rather have purist "ultra-MAGA" candidates who turn off right-of-center and swing voters to lose winnable races.
Demographics matter.
In a Wall Street Journal poll earlier this spring, Hispanic voters sent a massive shot across the bow of Democrats looking to retain control of the House in 2022: they prefer Republicans by nine percentage points. Back in November, the same poll had both parties tied. Even more concerning is a recent poll that found President Biden’s approval rating at just 26% with this traditional Democratic voting bloc.
The Democrat party’s winning 2020 coalition, which sent Joe Biden to the White House, must remain united and engaged in 2022 versus a motivated and rabid Republican base. If Hispanic voters do not turn out, or worse vote for Republicans, it could be a very long night on November 8 for Team Blue.
Another key part of Biden’s winning coalition are young voters who have registered a lack of enthusiasm in advance of the midterms in recent polls. There are opportunities however to rally younger voters, already dismayed by the likely Supreme Court decision on abortion rights and who are much more progressive than older counterparts. Federal action on student loan debt, supported by 85% of young voters in the Harvard Institute of Politics’ youth poll could also serve as a motivating factor six months out from election day.
Democrats must hold together our diverse coalition of labor, minorities, youth, and college-educated voters.
Endemic COVID?
We now have vaccines, therapeutics, immunity from prior infection, and the country finally seems very much back to normal for most Americans. Even as cases are currently rising in some areas, hospitalization and deaths remain fairly low and we know much more about this virus and how it can be prevented.
From a political stand-point, Democrats cannot afford for the pandemic to come roaring back. The vast majority of Americans know that we must live with this virus and that means keeping schools open, factories running, and supply chains strengthening.
Inflation focus.
Republicans took their eyes off the ball when Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is in charge of winning back the Senate for Team Red in 2022, unveiled his plan for tax increases on 75 million American families, the vast majority of them making less than $50,000 annually. Additionally his plan to sunset incredibly popular programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, won’t win many GOP votes among seniors and Americans dependent on those lifesaving programs.
Meanwhile, President Biden is helping farmers and businesses expedite products to market, fighting price-fixing and monopolies in the meat and poultry sector, bringing our supply chains home to America, and pushing for corporations and the extremely wealthy to pay their fair share. And he has results to show for it: the deficit decreased in his first term, and the United States is likely to see a $1.5 trillion reduction this year.
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There is no question that rising costs are hurting all Americans. If President Biden is able to try and stem the inflation tide and effectively contrast his plans with tax increases proposed by Senator Scott and embraced by a number of his colleagues, the potential red wave could be a mirage.
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History tells us that the party in the White House typically suffers losses in the first midterm of that president’s election. Initial polling suggests this election will follow that trend. But if President Biden can continue demonstrating his commitment to combating inflation, reduce COVID-19 to endemic status, and hold together Team Blue’s winning 2020 coalition, Democrats could buck historical midterm trends.
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