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No matter how many major events intervene, and goodness knows there have been several, the state of this year’s presidential race doesn’t seem to change.
Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by one percentage point in the latest Fox News national survey, 49-50%.
Last month, she was also behind Trump by one point, 48-49% -- as was President Joe Biden, with the same 48-49% result.
Between those two surveys, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention was held, Ohio Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she was certified as the Democratic presidential nominee and selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held several campaign events with record-breaking attendance.
Yet the horserace looks the same. Here’s why:
By one percentage point, more Democrats back Harris (94%) than Republicans support Trump (93%), while the small subgroup of Independents goes for him by 8 points.
Trump retains 95% of his 2020 backers and Harris carries 93% of 2020 Biden supporters, while new voters (those who haven’t voted in the four most recent general elections) split 49% each. Last month, new voters preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points.
There is a 22-point gender gap, as men favor Trump by 12 points and women favor Harris by 10.
FOX NEWS POLL: CLOSE RACES IN BATTLEGROUND STATES SHOW VOTERS LOCKED IN
Trump’s best groups include men, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree.
For Harris, it is women, Black voters, those under age 30, and college graduates. Her numbers among each of these groups are a touch higher than Biden’s were in the July head-to-head against Trump, but they generally lag what Biden received closer to Election Day in 2020.
The new survey also shows that those living in union households favor Harris by 10 points, while voters who have served in the military prefer Trump by 22 points.
The Biden-Trump double haters (those with unfavorable views of both) favor Harris by 41 points, but the small group of Harris-Trump double haters prefer Trump by 15 points.
In the expanded presidential ballot, Harris and Trump received 45% each, while support for Kennedy stands at 6%. All others are at 1%. Support for RFK is down from 10% in July and a high of 15% in November 2023. Seven percent of those backing Harris in the head-to-head matchup defect to third-party candidates compared to 9% of those favoring Trump.
Harris has an edge on the important measure of personal likeability. She’s 3 points underwater, viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 51%. Trump is 6 points underwater, 47-53% -- his best ratings in more than four years. In fact, ratings of both candidates have improved since last month, when Harris’ net rating was negative by 10 and Trump’s was negative by 12.
By contrast, Biden’s favorable rating is currently 23 points underwater, 38-61% -- his worst since before he was tapped as former President Obama’s running mate in 2008.
Walz is the only candidate with a net positive rating, as 41% view him favorably and 39% unfavorably, while 16% say they have never heard of him. Vance is underwater by 13 points (38-51%) and 9% are unfamiliar with him. Twice as many Republicans have a negative view of Vance (21%) than Democrats have of Walz (10%).
Equal numbers of those preferring Harris and Trump say they are extremely motivated about voting this year (68% each). Last month, Trump backers (66%) were 5 points more likely than Biden supporters (61%) to say they were extremely motivated.
In May, Biden supporters split between saying their vote was "for" him and "against" Trump (51-48%). That has shifted with Harris in the race, as 63% of her backers describe their vote as "for" her. For Trump supporters, it’s always been about voting for him (71% in May, 77% now).
Harris bests Trump by 7 points in being seen as honest and trustworthy (48% vs. 41%) and by 5 points in having empathy (49% vs. 44%). She leads by 8 points on having the mental soundness to serve effectively as president (58% vs. 50%). Trump has a 5-point edge in being seen as a strong leader (52% vs. 47%).
Nearly half think Harris’ positions on the issues are "too liberal" (45%) and the same number view Trump as "too conservative" (45%), while roughly equal numbers think each candidate’s positions are "about right" (43-45%).
Only 28% rate economic conditions positively. Still, that is an improvement from the 19% who felt that way in August 2022 -- and just one point away from where things stood in the early days of Biden’s term, when 29% said the economy was in good shape.
On the personal level, 43% rate their financial situation positively -- the largest number in over two years. But that is worse by 10 points compared to Biden’s first year (53% positive).
Majorities continue to give the national economy (73%) and their personal financial situation (57%) negative ratings.
The economy is clearly the top priority for voters, as 38% say it will be the most important issue in their vote for president. Next comes immigration and abortion, tied at 14% each, with all other issues tested in single digits.
By a 6-point margin, more voters trust Trump to handle the economy than Harris. He had double-digit leads over Biden on the economy in three of the last four Fox News surveys. Voters also give Trump the nod on handling border security (by 19 points), immigration (+14), foreign policy (+7), and crime (+5).
Harris is seen as better on climate change (by 18 points), abortion (+16), health care (+10), and uniting the country (+5). Neither candidate has a clear advantage on gun policy (Trump +3) or Supreme Court nominations (Harris +3).
Partisans’ issue priorities are quite different. Most Republicans will be voting on the economy (49%) or immigration (25%). There is a wider range of priorities among Democrats, with the economy (25%) and abortion (24%) at the top of the list, followed by health care (11%), election integrity (10%), and climate change (9%). For Independents, the economy is the dominant issue (44%), followed by immigration, abortion, health care, and election integrity (all clustered near 10%).
FOX NEWS POLL: HARRIS, TRUMP TIED IN PENNSYLVANIA
Poll-pourri
Seven in 10 voters think political debate in the country today is "overheated and dangerous," and more blame Republicans (44%) than Democrats (28%).
Seventy-four percent of voters say it is extremely or very important to have debates between Harris-Trump, a 10-point increase in the number who felt that way about Biden-Trump debates in May. Three-quarters of both Democrats and Republicans say debates are important, as do two-thirds of Independents.
Thirty-five percent are satisfied with the direction of the country, up from a Biden-era low of 24% in August 2022. That 11-point improvement, however, is still 10 points below the 45% who were happy at Biden’s 100-day mark.
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Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is viewed more negatively than positively by 17 points (37-54%). Last August, he was in positive territory by 3 points (46-43%).
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Conducted August 9-12, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,105 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (129) and cellphones (704) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (272). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with results among subgroup is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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