Mike Pompeo analyzes Hezbollah's threat to Israel
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Eight months into the Israel-Hamas war, a majority continues to side with the Israelis — but it is to a lesser degree than at the start of the conflict, plus fewer support sending financial aid to the Israeli government for their military.
That’s according to the latest Fox News survey released Wednesday.
Voters are twice as likely to side with the Israelis (57%) over the Palestinians (29%). This is where sentiment has stayed for the last several months, but nowhere near the 50-point Israeli edge at the start of the war (68% to 18% in October 2023).
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Decreased support for the Israelis is across the board, but voters ages 65 and over (-18 points), Democrats (-17), nonwhite voters (-15) and women (-12) are the main driving forces.
Voters are also less likely now to favor sending financial aid to Israel’s government to support their military. Just over half — 52% — favor sending money, down 8 points since November 2023, when 60% favored sending funds.
That downturn is also widespread, but most notable among liberal voters (-14 points), Democrats (-12), Independents (-11), voters with a college degree (-10) and suburban voters (-10).
Overall, 44% oppose sending financial aid to Israel’s military.
The Israel-Hamas War, President Biden & the 2024 Presidential Race
In a list of 10 issues, the Middle East conflict ranks last, with about 3 in 10 saying the war will be "extremely" important to their vote this November (32%). That’s far below top issues like the future of American democracy (68%) and the economy (66%).
Those who say the conflict is extremely important to their vote prefer former President Trump in the head-to-head ballot by 14 points and are more likely to trust Trump than President Biden to handle the conflict by 20 points.
Among voters overall, that margin is much smaller: 49% trust Trump to handle the war, compared to 45% who trust Biden.
"Despite being a lower tier issue, the Middle Eastern conflict is extremely important to a narrow constituency and could be consequential in a tight race," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News survey with Republican Daron Shaw. "Sometimes, a candidate’s or a party’s advantage on a constellation of lower tier issues can negate a disadvantage of the biggest issues, which was why Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 midterms."
For the first time since October 2023, President Biden edged out former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup, getting 50% support to Trump’s 48%. It’s the same story, but with a 1-point edge, in the five-way race: 43% Biden, 42% Trump, 10% Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 2% Cornel West and 2% Jill Stein.
In the two-way matchup, those who side with the Israelis go for Trump by 29 points, while those who side with the Palestinians go for Biden by a much larger 54-point margin.
By a 31-point margin, more voters disapprove (63%) than approve (32%) of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Majorities of Republicans (85%) and independents (60%) disapprove of his job on the war, as do 4 in 10 Democrats (41%).
Biden's ratings are slightly better, but remain underwater, on immigration (-28 points), inflation (-25 points), and the economy (-17 points).
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"There has been a lot of chatter about disaffection on the left about the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict," says Shaw. "Whatever concerns they have, it’s not hurting Biden in the ballot test. I think the real danger, however, is that continued conflict in the Middle East as well as Ukraine contributes to the larger perception that Biden has not delivered the sort of stability and normalcy he promised."
On his overall job performance, 45% approve of Biden’s job performance, while 55% disapprove, the same as last month.
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Conducted June 14-17 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,095 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (130) and cellphones (700) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (265). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.
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