Fox News Poll: Georgia races see split decision, with Warnock and Kemp ahead

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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on crime, abortion and the economy

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia discusses the issues of crime, abortion and the economy in an interview with Fox News Digital, minutes before the governor held a rally in Alpharetta, Georgia, on Sept. 27.

With just six weeks until the midterm election, the latest Fox News survey among Georgia registered voters shows Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock maintaining an edge over Republican Herschel Walker, while incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp widens his lead against Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams.

The poll, released Wednesday, finds Warnock up 5 points over Walker (46%-41%), similar to his 4-point edge in July (46-42%). The advantage is within the poll’s margin of error.

Georgia Senate Poll if Voting Now - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

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Among those rating their likelihood of voting as a 10 on a 10-point scale, meaning they feel certain they will vote, 47% back Warnock vs. 43% Walker.

Georgia Senate Poll if Voting Now for Enthusiasm- Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

Overall, 13% percent remain undecided or would vote for someone else.

Warnock enjoys more party loyalty, as 95% of Democrats support him vs. 82% of Republicans for Walker.

The survey asks self-identifying Republicans if they consider themselves more of a supporter of the Make American Great Again (or MAGA) movement or the Republican Party: 44% say the GOP, while 36% say MAGA.

In an interview with Fox News Digital, Walker emphasized his independence from former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him last year, yet 94% of MAGA voters support Walker versus just 71% of GOP supporters. Eleven percent of GOP supporters defect to Warnock and another 18% are undecided, would vote for someone else or not vote at all.

"Establishment Republicans are close to a majority of all GOPers in Georgia," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Winning 70 percent of that group is not going to get it done for any right of center candidate."

Independents supported Warnock by 20 points two months ago, while today they support him by just one. Almost 4 in 10 (38%) remain undecided, would vote for someone else or not at all. 

Forty-one percent say they are more enthusiastic to vote this year than in recent elections, and these voters go for Warnock by 4 points (49-45%). Forty-eight percent feel about the same as usual, and they also go for Warnock by 8 points (46-38%). Those who are less enthusiastic (10%) go for Walker by 7 points (41-34%). 

Georgia Senate Support for Candidate - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

By a 20-point margin, more of Warnock's backers (63%) than Walker's (43%) say they support their candidate enthusiastically. Over half of Walker's supporters do so with reservations (25%) or because they dislike the other candidates (29%). 

For Warnock, a third support him either with reservations (17%) or because they dislike the other candidates (17%).

A quarter of Georgians cite inflation and higher prices as the most important issue to their vote for Senate — a group Walker wins by 41 points. The other double-digit issues are the preservation of American democracy (18%) and abortion (13%) — both groups break for Warnock by more than 30 points.

More than 4 in 10 are extremely or very concerned the incumbent senator is out of touch with everyday Georgians (42%) and the Republican challenger isn’t qualified (45%).

In the Georgia governor’s race, support for Kemp is 50%, up 3 points since July, giving him a 7-point lead over Abrams who sits at 43%, relatively unchanged from two months ago (44%).

Georgia Governor if Voting Now - Kemp Job Performance - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

The race is unchanged among those who are certain to vote: 51% Kemp-44% Abrams.

Republicans are clear in their commitment to Kemp — 94% support him, including 97% of MAGA supporters.

Abrams enjoys 91% party loyalty; however, she’s still underachieving with Black voters. The 2018 Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey found fully 94% supported Abrams vs. the 80% share she receives in the new Fox survey.

Independents have done a complete 180 in the governor’s race and now contribute to Kemp’s lead. In July, independents supported Abrams by 15 points; now they break for Kemp by 12.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters (57%) approve of the job Kemp is doing as governor, up 5 points from July. Overall, 39% disapprove, down from 45%.

Gov Kemp Job Performance - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

The poll asks voters how they feel about Roe v. Wade being overturned.  The largest number is angry (42%, including 30% extremely), while 28% are happy (15% extremely). Nearly a quarter (23%) are indifferent to the decision.

Georgia opinion on SCOTUS overturning Roe V Wade - Fox News Poll (Fox News Poll)

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Voters who are happy about the ruling are about equally likely as those who are angry to be certain to vote (88% vs. 87%). At 83%, fewer indifferent voters are certain.

Overall, those who are happy break for Kemp (91%-6%), while those angry go for Abrams (79%-15%).  The indifferent voters also support Kemp (66%-24%).

In 2019, Kemp signed a law banning abortions once cardiac activity has been detected. This law took effect after Roe v. Wade was struck down.

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A bright spot for Abrams is that three-quarters of her supporters are backing her enthusiastically, compared to just over half for Kemp.

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Conducted Sept. 22-26, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 1,011 Georgia voters, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.