Fox News Poll: Biden, Trump in a dead heat in Virginia

Virginia is not widely considered a battleground state this election cycle -- or perhaps just not yet. After winning the state by more than 10 points four years ago, President Biden finds himself in a tie with former President Donald Trump, according to a new Fox News survey of Virginia registered voters. 

The poll, released Thursday, shows Biden and Trump with 48% each in a head-to-head matchup in the Old Dominion State.

Biden gets strong backing from Black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%).

While Biden leads among Black voters, it is nowhere near where he was in 2020 – according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. In 2020, Biden won Blacks by 81 points, compared to 48 points in the new survey. Trump nearly triples his share among Black voters: 9% in 2020 to 25% today.

Trump’s support comes from White evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%), and White voters (54%).

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There is no age gap, as voters under 30 (48% each) and those 65 and over (48% each) split their support. 

Independents are also torn (45% Biden, 43% Trump).

The gender divide is small but still evident, as men are more likely to go for Trump (+5), while the opposite is true among women (Biden +6).

A potential five-way race is tight in Virginia as well, with Biden edging out Trump by just 1 point, 42%-41%, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 9%, Cornel West 2%, and Jill Stein 2%.  

As of now, none of the third-party candidates asked in the survey are on the ballot in Virginia.

While Trump (10%) loses slightly more support to Kennedy than Biden (7%) when the race expands, it levels out because Biden loses more support to West and Stein (6%) than Trump (3%).

Two-thirds of Virginia voters say they are extremely motivated to vote this November and they give Biden a 3-point edge and push him over 50% (51% Biden, 48% Trump).

The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Virginia was former President George W. Bush in 2004.

"Virginia is a must win state for Biden, so a tight race here is going to require some serious defense from his campaign to hold it," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "But that appears possible, in that compared to elsewhere, Virginia voters are a little more positive about the economy and give Trump less of an advantage on the issues."

Nearly 6 in 10 voters say they are holding steady financially (43%) or getting ahead (16%). That’s compared to 40% who feel they are falling behind.  Those getting ahead/holding steady favor Biden by 32 points while those falling behind back Trump by 46 points. 

Still, more voters say Trump would better handle the economy than Biden by 12 points. Trump’s advantage is even larger on immigration/border security where voters think he’d be better by 17 points. He also does well on the Israel-Hamas war (+10).

Biden is preferred on the other issues tested: climate change (Biden better by 18 points), abortion (+11), election integrity (+10), health care (+8).  

On May 31, Trump was found guilty in the New York hush-money case. All survey interviews were conducted after the verdict was rendered.

Two-thirds (66%) of Virginians say Trump’s conviction won’t matter to their vote, including just over half who say it won’t matter at all (51%).

One-third (33%) say the conviction will matter a great deal or some to their vote. These voters prefer Biden by 41 points, while those who say it won’t matter at all go for Trump by a smaller 21-point margin.

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In general, over half believe Trump received a fair trial (55% fair, 42% not fair).

Views of both Biden and Trump are in negative territory: Biden is underwater by 14 points (42% favorable, 56% unfavorable) while Trump is under by 12 (43%, 55%).

Those viewing both candidates negatively, so-called "double haters," go for Biden by 17 points.

"The group of voters unfavorable toward both Trump and Biden is larger in Virginia than in other states and those voters overwhelmingly think Trump’s hush-money trial was fair," says Anderson.  "These voters will be pivotal to the outcome and, at least for some of them, the felony conviction is another strike against Trump."

Biden’s job rating is about the same as his personal favorable rating: 43% approve of his job performance while 57% disapprove. Forty-two percent strongly disapprove, which is double those who strongly approve (21%).

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Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is the first Republican to be elected to the governorship since 2009 and his job performance ratings are much better than Biden’s: 56% approve vs. 40% disapprove.  Still, nearly 3 in 10 who approve of Youngkin back Biden (28%), while 2 in 10 who disapprove of him back Trump (20%). 

In an interview with Martha MacCallum on Tuesday, Youngkin said Virginia is "back in play."

"Biden is still the favorite in Virginia," says Shaw. "But the data here show a very competitive race. The map is clearly expanding in a way that creates more opportunities for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes and more holes in the dam that Biden has to plug if he’s going to return to the White House."

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Conducted June 1-4 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,107 Virginia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (180) and cellphones (665) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (262). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.