Republicans risk losing a generation as environment becomes a defining issue for young voters, Independents

This is the first presidential election Giancarlo Da Motta will be old enough to vote in, but the 18-year-old from Miami's top priority is one that neither candidate spends much time talking about: climate.

"People are getting killed," he said to Fox News Digital of the increasingly intense hurricanes, floods and record-breaking heat hitting his state in recent years. "It's very intense."

Da Motta said he's not looking to Republicans or Democrats specifically — he wants a candidate who balances "solution-based practices" with economic stability.

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"It's not a party by party issue," he said.

But young voters' and Independents' growing concerns about the environment have disproportionately benefited the Democratic Party and may have even cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, according to one study.

"If Republicans don't talk about this in a way that does not make them look crazy to the average young person or the average Independent, they're going to lose a voting bloc that they possibly will never recover," said Chris Barnard, president of the American Conservation Coalition, a conservative environmental nonprofit, to Fox News Digital.

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Strong feelings about the environment were one of the biggest predictors of voting behavior in 2020, a University of Colorado study found.

Nearly three quarters of Independents who considered climate change "very important" voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, according to the report. So did more than a quarter of Republicans who felt the same way about the environment.

"Climate change opinion represents an electoral advantage for the Democrats," researchers wrote. "We estimate that this advantage was probably large enough in 2020 to change the outcome of the presidential election in the Democrats' favor."

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Independents make up the largest political voting bloc, with an average of 43% of Americans identifying as such in 2023, according to Gallup. Barnard worries Republicans are poised to shed more of their own voters as climate concerns grow among young conservatives.

In 2023, 81% of surveyed GOP voters between 18 and 44 years old said they believe climate change is a severe threat already or may get worse in the years ahead, according to Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES) Forum. That's 18% higher than GOP voters as a whole, according to the survey. 

"If they're not talking about climate and environmental issues, Republicans are setting themselves up for a long-term, generational electoral failure simply because of how many young people care about this," Barnard said to Fox News Digital.

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The environment doesn't usually rank as the number one issue for young voters. Inflation and health care took the top two spots with Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 in a June Economist/YouGov Poll. Climate change and the environment tied for third with the economy and abortion among those surveyed.

But a candidate's attitude toward environmental issues can "completely turn off" people who might vote for them on other issues, Barnard said.

Many Republicans have been openly dismissive of climate change, with former President Trump repeatedly calling it a "hoax."

"It just reflects on how you view things like basic science and how young people think about their future," Barnard said.

He theorized that much of the GOP backlash is in response to misrepresentations of science or extreme predictions that ended up not coming true, as well as economy-crippling proposals to address climate change.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed record-high global temperatures and greenhouse gas levels in 2023, according to a new report. While there is broad scientific consensus that the earth’s temperature is rising due to human activity, scientists’ opinions have differed on the severity of the problem and what, if any, solutions exist.

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Ignoring environmental issues altogether isn't a good strategy for Republicans, Barnard cautioned.

"I think having a stance on [the climate] is better than not having one," Da Motta said while attending the nonpartisan Youth VoteFest in Milwaukee during last month's Republican National Convention.

The incoming freshman at Miami Dade College wanted to see a "pragmatic" approach to environmental concerns. While ending the use of fossil fuels is a major talking point on the left, Da Motta acknowledged that such a plan is "just not feasible, given our dependency on it."

"I think that there's a middle ground that a lot of people don't find because [of] the political agendas," he said. "You start getting that tunnel vision and you lose track of what's a viable solution. And for me, it's always got to be in the middle."

Because conservatives have largely disengaged from the conversation, the "only ideas that young people are hearing are these kind of Green New Deal-type ideas from the left," Barnard said to Fox News Digital.

"If you give young people a choice between bad ideas or no ideas at all, they're probably still going to choose bad ideas, right?" he added.

The American Conservation Coalition wants to reclaim the conversation and advocate for policies like increasing nuclear energy production and cutting red tape that hinders innovation, among other measures.

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They also want to show young people that "conservatives do care" about the environment, Barnard said, and "have better ideas."

"We should go about them in a way that doesn't destroy the economy, doesn't increase American reliance on China, doesn't make people's lives harder, but actually unleashes innovation, makes energy prices go down, makes the country healthier and safer for future generations," he said. "That's the message that young people want to hear."

Kira Mautone contributed to this story and Ramiro Vargas contributed to the accompanying video.