NY Times political analyst says Democrats have real chance to keep the House: 'Anything can happen'

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The New York Times' chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote Monday there is a "real possibility" that Democrats can hold onto the majority in the House in November. 

"But the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade. It is a real possibility — not some abstraction in the sense that anything can happen," he wrote.

Cohn said the likely scenario was that Republicans gain the five seats they need to have a majority. 

He said if polls were "right," the House races would be very close and that with "a few lucky breaks," Democrats could hold onto the House. 

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FILE:  A voter arrives at a polling location to cast his ballot in the Michigan Primary Election on August 2, 2022 in Lansing, Michigan. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

Cohn has previously flagged "warning signs" for Democrats in midterm polling as some Democrats were outperforming Republicans in the same places polls overestimated Democrats Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

"In this national environment, it would be no surprise if the polls trended toward the Republicans over the next few weeks. If they don’t, we’ll be nervous that the polls are about to be off yet again," he said. 

He wrote that there was no reason to believe Democrats couldn't perform the same way they were performing in current Senate polling, which shows Democrats leading in both Pennsylvania and Arizona. 

Cohn said if there were as many House polls as Senate polls, "perhaps Democrats would appear to be ahead in the race for the House as well." 

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The New York Times building in New York City, New York.  (DON EMMERT/AFP via Getty Images)

Cohn added that until polling shifts more towards Republicans, there was "no reason to dismiss the prospect of a Democratic House." 

Historically, the incumbent president's party loses House seats in midterm elections; Presidents Trump, Obama, George W. Bush and Clinton all saw their party lose control of the House in midterms during their administrations. Bush bucked history in 2002 by seeing Republicans gain seats that year, buoyed in part by his popularity after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but the GOP lost the House in 2006, his second midterm. Clinton (1994), Obama (2010) and Trump (2018) saw their parties lose the House in their first midterms.

Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to gain control of the Senate as 11 races will determine which party gets the majority. 

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The chamber of the House of Representatives is seen at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 28, 2022. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

House Democrats are confident that their legislative record is the best weapon against MAGA Republicans in the midterms. 

"We've got a record to talk about," Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., said. "That we voted to get an infrastructure bill, fix our roads and bridges and our broadband and [to] get led out of [water] pipes."

Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I., said he was touting President Biden's COVID-19 relief efforts, investments in semiconductor manufacturing, and gun control legislation.