Bernie Sanders endorses Joe Biden as 2020 Democratic nominee
Sanders endorses political rival after suspending his campaign.
A new analysis of the presidential race published by The New York Times Monday indicates that former Vice President Joe Biden's apparent lead over incumbent Donald Trump is "more narrow and tenuous" than most public opinion polling indicates.
According to Times election analyst Nate Cohn, Biden leads Trump by an average of six points in national polls of registered voters. However, Cohn said the race is likely closer than that in several key states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida -- all three of which backed Trump in 2016.
Cohn notes that Trump continues to have strong support among the white working-class electorate "who powered his upset four years ago," writing that the president leads among white voters without degrees by an average of 29 points in polls conducted since mid-March.
That margin is a sign, Cohn writes, "that Mr. Biden, despite his reputed appeal to blue-collar workers, has made little to no progrss in winning back the white voters without a college degree who supported Barack Obama in 2012, but swung to Mr. Trump in 2016."
WH DEFENDS FAUCI AGAINST MEDIA SPECULATION
According to the Times analysis, Biden leads Trump among white voters with a college degree by an average of 15 points, similar to the margin Hillary Clinton carried the demographic group by in 2016. Cohn also writes that Biden also has a big advantage over Trump among minority voters, though he adds there is "consistent evidence of a small yet discernable shift in the president's direction" among that group.
As a result, according to Cohn, it is possible that the Democratic candidate could win the popular vote in November, but lose the electoral vote for the third time in 20 years.
"At the moment, a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide," he writes. "As a result, he holds only a narrow and tenuous edge in the race for the Electoral College, if he holds one at all."
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Cohn concludes the analysis by cautioning that "no one knows what American life will look like by the time of the election," a nod to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
"Perhaps the country will still be in lockdown, saddled by 30 percent unemployment, and convinced that the president's slow response cost lives and damaged the economy," he writes. "Or maybe the country will be swept by euphoria as lockdowns are lifted a month or two ahead of the election and a liberated population sends its children to school, visits friends, goes to the park and enjoys double-digit G.D.P [sic] growth in the third quarter."
Fox News First
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox.
By entering your email and clicking the Subscribe button, you agree to the Fox News Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and agree to receive content and promotional communications from Fox News. You understand that you can opt-out at any time.