New Hampshire could "publicly embarrass" President Biden by holding its Democratic primary election without the incumbent on the ballot, according to The New York Times.
In a lengthy New York Times magazine piece headlined, "The D.N.C. HAS A PRIMARY PROBLEM," contributing writer Ross Barkan detailed that Iowa has historically gone first with its caucus, followed by New Hampshire — "which zealously guarded its status as the first-in-the-nation actual primary."
Biden's effort to win the Democratic nomination got off to a terrible start in 2020, with poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. He rebounded after he won resoundingly in the South Carolina primary, which has far more Black voters than the first two states, and from there he surged on Super Tuesday and won the nomination.
As a result, Biden wants to change the process to give "voters of color… a voice in choosing our nominee." The plan, proposed in December, aims to increase levels of diversity in the early primaries by making South Carolina the first primary state, giving it top billing over Iowa and New Hampshire, which traditionally have held the first caucus and primary in the country's nominating system, respectively. Biden’s dramatic plan to reshape the Democratic primary is endorsed by the Democratic National Committee but has landed with a thud otherwise so far, and has been rejected in states across the country by both Republican and Democratic state leaders.
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"New Hampshire, the state that prides itself on its Live Free or Die motto, has declared that it will vote first anyway, setting up a clash with the D.N.C. that could widen to publicly embarrass Biden — who, assuming he coordinates with the D.N.C. on its new calendar, would not be on the New Hampshire ballot in this scenario — handing the incumbent president a shocking statewide defeat," Barkan wrote.
Even if Biden was on the ballot, the small state known for its independent streak could potentially give a surprising share of votes, or even a stunning victory, to 2024 Democratic challenger Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is polling far behind Biden but has earned extra media attention for his heterodox views in recent weeks. Without Biden on the ballot though, Kennedy could lock down the state's delegates over fellow longshot challenger Marianne Williamson, although it remains to be seen if any other Democratic candidates emerge.
More than 20 New Hampshire Democrat leaders urged Biden this year to alter his plan, which they warned could hurt their party’s performance in 2024, since they would be responsible for ending their state's status as the first primary state. New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has vowed to spike any possible plan to move his state’s primary.
New Hampshire Democratic Party chairman Ray Buckley told the Times, "The reality is that New Hampshire is going to keep the first-in-the-nation primary… and the question only is whether or not the president is going to put his name on the ballot."
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Talk show host and former Democratic state representative D. Arnie Arnesen agrees that Biden botched the plan.
"They knew the Republicans were going to Iowa and New Hampshire anyway. Why change now? There’s no upside," Arnesen told the Times. "Not one iota of benefit for Joe Biden. Nothing. No benefit to Joe, no benefit to the Democrats. They shot themselves in the foot."
Iowa's lawmakers have also attempted to undermine the president’s plan to delay their caucus. Democrats in the state proposed a compromise that would let the state hold its caucus first as usual, but then delay announcing vote results until May, but there is no final decision.
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"What difference more time will make for New Hampshire is unclear. Democrats there insist that it is their right to go first, ahead of South Carolina. Biden, as of now, plans to be nowhere near the Granite State next winter," the Times reported.
"In theory, [Chairman Jaime] Harrison’s D.N.C. will simply not recognize the New Hampshire primary nor any of the delegates won by Kennedy and Williamson," the Times continued. "For national Democrats, the ugliness of it all — a sitting president losing a primary to the incendiary son of a Democratic icon — would be harder to dismiss."
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Democrats in South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan support Biden’s plans to move up their primaries, but opposition from Republicans could delay or even stop the change.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2020 and 2016 but failed to capture the overall nomination both times. South Carolina, however, went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020, the eventual nominees that year.
Fox News’ Patrick Hauf contributed to this report.