Key coronavirus model revised with lower projected US death toll
Health Metrics Sciences professor Dr. Ali Mokdad produces coronavirus models and weighs in on the positive changes to the numbers.
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Dr. Ali Mokdad, a University of Washington professor working on a key coronavirus model, told "Bill Hemmer Reports" Thursday that the number of deaths anticipated by his model has declined in recent days due to some positive trends emerging in the U.S. and in Europe.
The most recent modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Wednesday predicted that 60,415 Americans would die from the virus by Aug. 4 of this year. The model also projected that the number of daily deaths from coronavirus in the U.S. would peak at 2,212 on Sunday -- down from Monday'sprojected high of 3,130 deaths on April 16.
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"How do you move so much within 48 hours, doctor?" Hemmer asked.
"Very positive news," Mokdad replied. " ... We have seen data coming to us from Italy and Spain, where the peak was much higher and faster, and it didn't go as high as we expected. At the same time, we have seen data coming from Washington state and California that informed our model and led to this positive news."
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Mokdad added that it "seems people are staying at home and helping our medical institutions to take care of the patients and our physicians and hospitals are doing an amazing job by providing the best treatment, and stretching the resources. And it seems everything is working so far."
As Hemmer noted, the IHME model has helped influence the U.S. response to the coronavirus outbreak as politicians wrestle with when and how to reopen the economy.
On Thursday, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director for the International Monetary Fund, said she expected to see "the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression."
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She said that the IMF will release an updated world economic forecast on Tuesday of next week that will show just how quickly the coronavirus outbreak has turned what was expected to be a solid year of growth into one of deep contraction.
Just three months ago, the IMF was forecasting that 160 nations would enjoy positive income growth on a per capita basis. Now the expectation is that over 170 nations will have negative per capita income growth this year.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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