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CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'
By Gabriel Hays
Published October 30, 2024
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.
Enten mentioned that the fraction of people satisfied with the country’s current direction, President Biden’s current approval numbers, and strong voter registration numbers among Republicans in swing states are all things that signal Trump’s re-election next week.
"If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.
On Tuesday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten discussed three "signs" pointing to a Trump victory next month. (Screenshot/CNN)
Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are lower as she’s the incumbent at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track.
He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who believe the country is on the right track when the incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average rate when the incumbent wins is 42 percent.
Mentioning the 28 percent number, he said, "It doesn‘t look anything – anything – like this 42%... So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins."
Enten then broke down the second sign - that historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not succeeded by a candidate of that same party.
"So, I went back and I looked. Okay, was this successor of the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden‘s most definitely is? He‘s 15 points underwater."
Enten pointed to how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same framing fit the end of former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by Republican Richard Nixon's term. The same was the case at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.
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Former President Trump during a campaign event in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
"Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, if not the upper teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory – no," he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower succeeded Truman.
He summed up the second sign pointing to Trump's victory, stating, "So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point."
Enten’s third sign was the fact that Republican voter registration has been gaining on Democratic voter registration in swing states. "So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk," the reporter declared.
He then concluded with a summary of the entire set of findings, stating, "We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned."
Enten’s assessment comes a day after he warned that polls could be underestimating Harris’ performance. He argued Tuesday that polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections underestimated Democratic Party support by around four points, and said that could be happening to Harris’ numbers currently, which show she’s essentially tied with Trump.
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