CNN data guru says if Harris keeps taking Trump's margins with White working class, ‘she’ll win’

A senior political data reporter argued that if Vice President Kamala Harris keeps gaining ground with the non-college-educated White voters of Trump’s base, she will likely win the election.

CNN’s Harry Enten shared a clip of his appearance on CNN to the X platform and asked, "Why did Harris do well in those NYT polls last week in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?" He went on to declare, "Harris is doing significantly better than Biden among Trump's base of White working class voters. If she puts up these numbers with them, she'll win."

In the video he shared from Wednesday’s episode of "Erin Burnett OutFront," he spoke at length about how former President Trump is starting to lose ground with the very voting bloc that chiefly won him the election in 2016.

"White working class voters, White voters without a college degree. That is Donald Trump‘s core group," he observed. "That was the reason why he was able to break down that giant blue wall, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in the Great Lakes and look at their support now versus where we were a few months ago when the match-up was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden."

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While Trump still leads with this demographic, Enten suggested that the Harris-Walz campaign’s work to gain favor with this group may win her the election.

"Look, Donald Trump‘s still leads, but look at that margin. It has shrunk significantly, it’s 25 points back in May. It has now 14 points now here in August. Nearly been sliced by half. Those numbers that Harris is putting up amongst that group right now are actually slightly better than Joe Biden did four years ago amongst those voters in those key states, those are the types of numbers that Kamala Harris needs to put up in order to win."

After both Burnett and Enten spoke about how this defies previous conventional expectations about Harris’ appeal, Enten went on to note that while the margin between Trump and Harris with working-class White voters is shrinking, ultimately, "elections are all about margins."

Enten added further that "This is also a change election, and it‘s also about change as well. And she‘s breaking through among White working-class voters on the issue of change for the economy."

The data guru also emphasized that White working class voters are critical to win not just in the blue wall, but across the electorate.

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"Non-college Whites are a key group across the board. They are a plurality of voters in the electorate," he said. "When you compare them with college-educated Whites, or if you compare them with African Americans and Hispanics, and especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, look at that. They‘re the majority of voters. The fact that Harris is closing in on Trump with them is the big reason why she has those advantages." 

These surprise findings, Enten said, are "a welcome thing for Democrats."

Susan Wiles, a key Trump campaign strategist, has repeatedly downplayed the importance of the demographic that many consider to be Trump’s base in lieu of trying to find support among others.

During an interview with The Atlantic published in July, Wiles was asked about what appeared to be a paraphrased quote from one of Trump’s allies, "For every Karen we lose, we’re going to win a Jamal and an Enrique."

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"That’s a fact. I believe it. And I so believe we’re realigning the party," Wiles told the interviewer. "And I don’t think we’re going to lose all the Karens, either. They buy eggs. They buy gas. They know. They may not tell their neighbor, or their carpool line, but they know."

Wiles has shared similar rhetoric about realigning the party before, such as when she was asked about her "winning campaign" in 2020 that Trump went on to lose. 

"We knew going into this election that it really was time to change the Republican coalition, the traditional Republican coalition just simply can’t - I don’t believe - elect Republicans any longer. So beginning to bring into the tent a larger number of Hispanic voters, certainly making it palatable for African-Americans," Wiles said.

"I’m happy to say, proud to say that it worked," she said of the 2020 campaign.