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CNN data guru astonished by Trump's performance in cities: 'I would have never thought possible'
By Alexander Hall
Published November 13, 2024
CNN data expert Harry Enten suggested that President-elect Donald Trump may be the best Republican candidate of the 21st century, because of how he improved with voters in urban areas.
CNN host Erin Burnett noted how the nation's most progressive cities moved to the right in last week's election, which saw San Francisco's progressive Mayor London Breed lose to her more moderate opponent Daniel Lurie.
"It comes as this nation‘s biggest and most liberal cities are part of the reason why we have seen this push to right, moving right, including ultra-liberal San Francisco. Its progressive Mayor London Breed voted out, replaced with Daniel Lurie, my guest in a moment," she said.
Enten spoke about the "red invasion" people are seeing on electoral maps, and how they are a clear departure from even Trump’s 2016 victory.
Polling expert Harry Enten said that Trump's 2024 victory shows a new shift that is entirely different from his previous victory. (CNNhe him)
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"You remember back in 2017, you know, the liberal cities were ‘the resistance,’ the core of ‘the resistance.’ What happened in 2024? You think of a major city in the United States. Donald Trump put up the best Republican performance for a Republican nominee for president in at least 20 years, if not the entire 21st century," Enten said. "We‘re talking about Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco, across the map Donald Trump put up historically strong numbers for a Republican candidate for president in places that truthfully, if you would have asked me 8 years ago, I would have never thought possible."
Burnett agreed it is "really stunning," and asked Enten what he thinks is driving this sea change.
"What‘s driving it? You know, I think immigration, one of the things you mentioned earlier on, in that last segment, is part of it. But I think crime is a big part of it, as well," Enten responded. "If you look at Gallup polling, you ask Democrats nationwide, ‘Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with our efforts to control and bring down the crime rate?’ what you see is the dissatisfaction number now versus a decade ago."
After exclaiming "my goodness gracious" as he noticed how the number of those feeling "satisfied" dropped by 20 points, Enten suggested that "I think that‘s part of the reason why you have seen these liberal DAs be ousted in places like San Francisco, in places like Alameda County, in places like Los Angeles. The crime rates have-simply put-moved a lot of these voters to the right."
Polling guru Harry Enten analyzed one key aspect of polling that may show why so many urban voters began to support Trump.
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"You know, look, obviously we‘re sitting here in New York talking about this, in Manhattan, where there was a swing. But when you look at the map of New York City, the biggest city in the country, the big swings right, yes, it was in Manhattan, but it was also in other parts of the city," Burnett said. "And that gives you a real sense of who was driving the ship."
"Yeah, exactly right. It was in The Bronx, it was in Queens, it was in Brooklyn, and if you break it down by racial areas, you look at the assembly district that has the most Asians in it, you see a massive shift, a massive shift," he said. "Look at this. Donald Trump gaining 27 points versus where he did four years ago. The highest Hispanic percentage in an assembly district, a 25-point shift. Highest Black percentage for an assembly district, a 6-point shift. What’s going on is if 2017 or 2016 was the election of the White working class moving over to the Republican ranks, the 2024 election was Trump doing historically well with minority voters."
Burnett responded, "If that doesn‘t give you pause, if you‘re a Democrat looking at this world, I don‘t know what will."
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