Thought the 2020 elections were over? Pelosi swings door open to unseating a Republican member

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And you thought the 2020 elections were finally over.

The House of Representatives could be in for a case study in the execution of the most raw, Machiavellian power politics possible. Even on Capitol Hill.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) swung the door wide open to possibly unseating a current Republican member and replacing her with a Democrat.

The House swore-in Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) as the winner in Iowa’s second Congressional district when the new Congress began on January 3. Miller-Meeks eked out a six-vote win over Democrat Rita Hart, flipping a seat from blue to red. After recounts, Iowa election officials certified Miller-Meeks as the winner.

Hart appealed to the House Administration Committee to investigate the matter. Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution says the House and Senate "shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members."

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The panel took up the case. Miller-Meeks asked the committee to dismiss Hart’s request this week. The committee denied that entreaty and is continuing the investigation.

It’s unclear where this may go. Some thought the House could battle on January 3 over seating Miller-Meeks or Hart. But the House Administration Committee met this week to consider a request by Miller-Meeks to end Hart’s appeal.

So, I asked Pelosi if she could conceive of a scenario where the House would nullify the election of a member in the middle of a Congress and replace them with someone else:

Pergram: Could you see a scenario, depending on what they find in their probe, of unseating of the current member and seating Rita Hart?

Pelosi: Chad is always the hypothetical. Could you see a scenario?

Pergram: That would be a pretty bold move.

Pelosi: Yeah, but there could be a scenario to that extent.

Despite the Constitutional provision, it’s nearly unheard of to remove a member mid-stream.

The irony isn’t lost on Republicans. They argue Democrats insist on following state election certifications when it comes to the Electoral College and the presidency. But with Miller-Meeks and Hart, Democrats may be willing to override local election officials when it benefits their side.

But any conclusion to this dispute is far off. It likely won’t be settled for months. A decision on this seat comes down to one thing: the math.

Democrats now hold a narrow 220-211 majority. The Senate is likely to confirm Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) as Interior Secretary on Monday. The Democratic majority will shrink to 219-211. Democrats will only be able to lose three votes on their side and still prevail on a vote without assistance from the other side.

Would Pelosi have the votes to unseat Miller-Meeks and install Hart?

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Hard to say. Would moderate Democrats be willing to take one for the team and vote to unseat a Republican in favor of a Democrat? That probably won’t help their bona fides trying to be centrists and demonstrating a willingness to work with the other side. Pelosi may lack the votes on this.

But then again, over the years, Pelosi has persuaded reluctant Democrats to take tough votes – like on the climate change bill, known as "Cap and Trade" in 2009. That vote cost many Democrats their seats. Republicans won control of the House in the 2010 midterms.

That said, just holding hearings and investigations on this race helps Democrats stoke the embers of "voting reform." It helps them underscore their push for the Senate to approve HR 1, the voting access bill, which recently moved through the House.

Pelosi could also use the Iowa election question as an "in case of emergency, break glass" option. In a 219-211 House, anything can happen. Political observers have raised the question about the possibility of the House flipping in the middle of the Congress due to deaths or resignations. After all, we are operating in the age of COVID. Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX) died of COVID earlier this winter. Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA) died late last year and never took office.

Such a narrow majority is tenuous even under the best of circumstances.

Finally, Pelosi is also masterful at political psyops. She often rents space in the heads of Republicans. Consider the installation of metal detectors outside the House chamber after the 1/6 riot. Even if Pelosi has no intention to unseat Miller-Meeks and seat Hart, or, lacks the wherewithal to do so, Pelosi can pre-occupy the GOP with the possibility of seating Hart. Such circumstances drive the opposition up a wall.

The House hasn’t tinkered this much with overturning an election since 1985. Indiana election officials determined that GOPer Rick McIntyre defeated Rep. Frank McCloskey (D-IN) in 1984. Indiana election officials certified McIntyre as the winner by 34 votes. But officials never tabulated nearly 5,000 ballots.

The House didn’t seat McIntyre or McCloskey when the 99th Congress commenced in January, 1985. The seat remained vacant. House Speaker Tip O’Neill (D-MA) commissioned a three-member panel (two of whom were Democrats) to determine the outcome of the election. The panel finally decided McCloskey prevailed – by four votes. In May, 1985, the House seated McCloskey instead of McIntyre. Some Democrats even voted against seating McCloskey. But it didn’t matter. Democrats held more than 250 seats and had controlled the House for three decades straight at that point.

After the House seated McCloskey, Republicans stormed out of the chamber in protest.

Republicans viewed the Democrats’ maneuver as a bald abuse of power. Some Republicans point to the fight over seating McCloskey as the beginning of the "Republican Revolution" which materialized in 1994 when the GOP finally seized control of the House. After the McCloskey incident, many moderate Republicans began to side with future Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) who was critical of the Democrats’ tactics.

Regardless, the key to today’s situation is that the House seated Miller-Meeks. They never seated McIntyre or McCloskey. That’s why Republicans would view any move to unseat her as a complete power grab by Democrats.

This was also an issue with seating Rep. Adam Clayton Powell (D-NY) in the late 1960s. Powell chaired the Education and Labor Committee. But he was soon scrutinized for ethical lapses and taking trips to The Bahamas on the taxpayer dime. The House stripped Powell of his chairmanship and launched an inquiry. Powell won re-election in 1966. But the House refused to seat him in 1967. Powell ran again in 1968 and won. The Supreme Court ruled the House couldn’t refuse to seat Powell. But the House could kick him out.

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So note that Miller-Meeks is now a member.

The fight over Powell forced Congress to pass the Federal Contested Elections Act. That’s the very act which Rita Hart took advantage of to appeal her case to the House.

Will there ever be a "Rep. Rita Hart (D-IA)?"

As the Speaker would say, it’s just a "hypothetical."