First in Fox News First: Poll shows Hillary way under water in swing states

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Buzz Cut:
• First in Fox News First: Poll shows Hillary way under water in swing states
• Power Play: Is Hillary losing control?
• How now, butter cow? Candidates swarm Iowa Fair
• Jeb says brother’s Iraq ‘mission was accomplished’
• Grody, dudes

FIRST IN FOX NEWS FIRST: POLL SHOWS HILLARY WAY UNDER WATER IN SWING STATES
In a poll of voters in the six make-or-break swing states, Hillary Clinton now trails a generic Republican opponent by 13 points – a jump from last month’s 8-point deficit.

The poll, which will be released later today, was conducted for the pro-GOP group American Crossroads by pollsters Vox Populi. The telephone survey included 1,908 registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.

While the Republican nominee will certainly have greater liabilities than a generic standard bearer – though likely some advantages, as well – a deficit of this size is bad news for Clinton as she looks to head off other potential intra-party rivals.

Clinton’s best argument for the nomination is her own inevitability. If she is seen as a potential loser with the general electorate, Democrats could easily be forgiven for backing a candidate they like and trust more.

The reason for Clinton’s decline with the swing-state general electorate is not hard to discern. Trust for Clinton waned notably since last month’s survey. In July, 41 percent of respondents expressed at least some degree of trust for the former secretary of state. This month, that’s fallen to 37 percent.

Distrust of Clinton, which clocked in at 56 percent last month has climbed all the way to 60 percent. It’s bad enough to be 23 points underwater on trustworthiness in general but maybe worst of all is that 47 percent this month said they “completely distrust” Clinton.

Clinton’s net favorability fell sharply, too. She was 15 points below the beam last month. This time, it’s at negative 21 percent. That doesn’t necessarily reflect her potential vote share since people will sometimes (albeit rarely) vote for a candidate they do not like or trust, but -23 on trust and -21 on favorable is a dog’s breakfast of an attribute set even at this early date.

You can get the full results of the poll here.

[Watch Fox: New Fox News poll results on Hillary Clinton’s email troubles and the Iran nuclear deal release on “Special Report with Bret Baier” at 6 p.m. ET]

Double gulp - Two big chunks of bad news for Team Hillary today: Bloomberg reports that the FBI is investigating whether a backup exists elsewhere that might reveal the contents of the emails Clinton destroyed from her time in office. And AP reports that the security concerns related to Clinton’s emails may extend to the highly-secretive U.S. drone assassination program.

But does she have a hat? – “It is concerning to watch the drip-drip-drip of the story, with the ‘it’s nonsense’ response from the campaign. It feels terrifyingly similar to the partisan dynamics of the Swift Boat mess of 2004. I really hope I’m wrong.’ – a Democratic operative backing Clinton speaking to David Drucker

POWER PLAY: IS HILLARY LOSING CONTROL?
With Hillary Clinton’s private server now in FBI hands, does a criminal investigation materially change her ability to sustain a White House bid? Paige Lavender of the HuffPo and WashEx’s Gabby Morrongiello discuss the latest with Chris Stirewalt. WATCH HERE.

WITH YOUR SECOND CUP OF COFFEE…
Everything is so racist. If white people thought that environmentalism was a safe refuge from privilege shaming and current pariah status, they were wrong. Jedidiah Purdy writing at the New Yorker looks at the scary, scientific-sounding racism that was endemic among early American environmentalists. It’s not Planned Parenthood bad, but pretty nasty: “In ‘Our National Parks,’ a 1901 essay collection written to promote parks tourism, [John Muir] assured readers that, ‘As to Indians, most of them are dead or civilized into useless innocence.’” Read it and then scrape the Sierra Club sticker off your Subaru.

Got a TIP from the RIGHT or the LEFT? Email FoxNewsFirst@FOXNEWS.COM

POLL CHECK
Real Clear Politics Averages
Obama Job Approval: Approve – 45.4 percent//Disapprove – 49.3 percent
Directions of Country: Right Direction – 29.0 percent//Wrong Track – 62.2 percent

HOW NOW, BUTTER COW? CANDIDATES SWARM IOWA FAIR
Political junkies, loosen your belts! On today’s docket, former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., has the stage to himself today at the Iowa State Fair as the only presidential candidate on the soapbox. Amid the hay bales that heard Mitt Romney declare“corporations are people,” Bush will look to win over Evangelicals who still are not too keen on him. Jeb lost 40lbs recently on the paleo diet so he may have some wiggle room on the calorie front, but his need to address Iowans’ concerns over his conservative creds remains a challenge.

Some 20 presidential candidates are slated to make pitches over the course of the fair. On Saturday, former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., former Gov. Lincoln Chafee, D-R.I., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., take to the soapbox. Sunday will bring Ben Carson, and former Gov. George Pataki, R-N.Y., to the stage. Look out for other candidates milling about the grounds taking a look at how voters in the first caucus state are ranking their deep-fried politicking.

[Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are expected to be at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Saturday, though neither is on the speakers’ schedule.]

Trump hires hands - WaPo: “The groundwork laid by Trump’s sizable Iowa staff, with 10 paid operatives and growing, is the clearest sign yet that the unconventional candidate is looking beyond his summer media surge and attempting to win February’s first-in-the-nation caucuses….‘I see them as a major threat to all the other campaigns because of the aggressiveness of their ground game,’ said Sam Clovis, an Iowa conservative who leads former Texas governor Rick Perry’s campaign. ‘You cannot swing a dead cat in Iowa and not hit a Trump person,’ Clovis continued. ‘It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen.’”

Sounds like Hillary’s campaign and the press - “After much cajoling and corralling – and a little rump-slapping – Big Mac finally bolted into the weighing chute, prompting one of his handlers to sprint to shut the front gate…” – The Des Moines Register reporting on the Trump-backing prize boar of the fair.

Jeb says brother’s Iraq ‘mission was accomplished’ - Bloomberg: “Speaking at a national security forum in Davenport, Iowa, on Thursday, the Republican presidential candidate acknowledged that his brother's record on prosecuting the war and its aftermath wasn’t perfect as he tried to balance his own outlook and reconcile the implicit connection he has to some of his brother’s unpopular decisions. ‘I think people have every right to be critical of decisions that were made,’ the former Florida governor said. ‘In 2009, Iraq was fragile, but secure.’ The ‘mission was accomplished’ when it came to Iraq’s security at the end of his brother’s time in the White House,’ Bush said.”

Rubio bashes Obama’s Cuba reset, Iran deal - With Secretary of State John Kerry in Havana today to raise the American flag over the U.S. embassy and the president pressing Congress to approve his Iran nukes deal, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., warns Obama’s diplomacy with dictators threatens America’s safety, security. New in Fox News Opinion: “These two dangerous developments represent the convergence of nearly every flawed strategic, moral, and economic notion that has driven President Obama’s foreign policy, and as such are emblematic of so many of the crises he has worsened around the world.”

[As part of a speech in New York today detailing his policy on Cuba and Iran, Rubio says he’ll invite political dissidents of repressive government to his inauguration.]

Walker plans policy rollout - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:  Coming off a routine debate performance and a dip in the polls, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker says he soon will begin unveiling policy positions on health care, national security and other issues expected to play major roles in the 2016 presidential race….‘We’ll be laying the specifics out in hopes that in the next debate, we talk about that, as opposed to just talking about attacks on any of the candidates,’ Walker said.”

[Walker’s campaign is keeping an eye on the SEC Primary as well, signing on more Georgia backers.]

POWER PLAY: NEW HAMPSHIRE IS WHERE IT’S AT
Take the likes of Trump, Bush, Kasich, et al., add the quirky nature of first in the nation primary voters, and New Hampshire is shaping up to be a raucous battleground. HuffPo’s Paige Lavender and the WashEx’s Gabby Morrongiello join Chris Stirewalt to explore the unique political landscape of the Granite State. WATCH HERE.

GRODY, DUDES
Reuters: “Three men hoping to find valuables in New York City’s extensive sewer system were facing criminal charges for climbing through a manhole cover and spending several hours on a treasure hunt in the muck-filled caverns, authorities said on Friday. A spokesman for the New York City Police Department said Marquise Evans, 21, dislodged a manhole cover on a street in Brooklyn late on Wednesday and allowed two other men to climb inside. Witnesses called police, and responding officers and firefighters, outfitted in protective garb, followed the men but could not locate the pair, the spokesman said. About four hours later, the two men, identified as David Hannibal, 45, and Damion Nieves, 35, emerged and were taken into custody, police said.”

Chris Stirewalt is digital politics editor for Fox News. Want FOX News First in your inbox every day? Sign up here.