Obama economist makes bold prediction: Here's how the economy could rebound
Jason Furman, fmr Obama Economic Council Chair, says a quick economic rebound from the coronavirus crisis could give Trump a campaign boost
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If American voters interpret economic growth as states continue to slowly reopen as a win for President Trump, it could potentially boost his re-election chances come November, said a former Obama economic adviser.
Appearing Wednesday on "America's Newsroom" with host Sandra Smith, Jason Furman said that there is nowhere to go but up for the nation's economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.
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"The economy went incredibly far down," he explained. "In April, it was at a very low point. Over the next six months, it will move itself from very, very bad -- which is where it was in April – to very bad or, if we are lucky, just bad towards the end of the year."
Although Furman added that he is not that optimistic about what the overall state of the country's finances will be at the end of the year, he told Smith there will be "a lot of jobs created every month" to start digging out of the deep hole the nation was chucked down as the COVID-19 virus hostilely took over the U.S.
"Yeah, I mean, there will be two ways to look at it," he remarked. "President Trump will be saying that we created one or two million jobs last month – that’s the most jobs in a month. And, others will point out very correctly -- I think arguably more correctly -- that we’re still ...15 million jobs short of where we were before the coronavirus struck."
"And so, we will be in a situation that is like the financial crisis that we were in a decade ago. Only, that will be an improvement on where we were a couple [of] months before it -- as opposed to the financial crisis where we never saw even a period of rapid improvement," he continued.
The president has long championed his economic success as the hallmark of his campaign -- refuting any claims that there was sustained growth carried over from the previous administration's work.
President Donald Trump arrives at SNHU Arena to speak at a campaign rally, Monday, Feb. 10, 2020, in Manchester, N.H. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Furman gives most of the credit to American businesses and workers.
"The most important thing is what do we do to strengthen the economy going forward and just pretending everything is perfect, I don't think it's a good strategy to make everything as perfect as we would like it to be," he warned.
But, returning to a sense of normalcy will certainly not be easy for companies, employees, and presidents alike.
"Financial crises are of long, grinding slow recoveries. Natural disasters -- the economy snaps back very quickly. This is a combination of the two," Furman pointed out. "It’s a little bit like a natural disaster, so you’ll see some of that snapback. It’s a little bit like a financial crisis: long and grinding."
"And, by the way, how well we do depends on what we do. I mean, if we don't do any more policy, we’re going to be in a bunch of trouble," he urged.
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"We need to pass aid to states. We need to help people who have been most impacted. We need to stay at it and not assume everything would be fine," he concluded. "So, the data would say 'don't worry' right now, but when you look at the depth of the hole we’re in, a lot more is needed from policymakers than what we’ve seen to date."
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